Friday, January 28, 2011

Ten Countries on the Verge of Demographic Crisis

Very interesting info from Business Insider....
Pakistan: $167 Billion GDP

Population change by 2040: +38%
Median age in 2010: 21.3
Median age in 2040: 29.4
Birth rate: 65 out of 223 
Pakistan is rapidly becoming the fourth most populous country in the world, but that does not make it one of the BRICs. Far more than neighbors India and China, Pakistan lacks the infrastructure for educating its surging population and the economy for employing them. "Time is running out to put appropriate policies in place. The absence of this may result in large-scale unemployment and immense pressure on health and education systems. In short, a socio-economic crisis may take place, making the demographic dividend more of a demographic threat,” said Durr-e-Nayab of the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.

Egypt: $188 Billion GDP

Population change by 2040: +32%
Median age in 2010: 23.9
Median age in 2040: 32.8
Birth rate: 69 out of 223 
Egypt has more than twice the GDP per capita of Pakistan, but just about the same birth rate, median age, and blazing population growth. The rising population threatens to overwhelm the emerging economy, causing a rise in unemployment, pollution, disease, and unrest. Already there are not enough jobs for the half-million Egyptians that join the job market each year, according to the AFP.
Extreme population density is another problem.
"Egypt, outside the desert, has the highest population density in the world, with 2,000 inhabitants in every square kilometre, twice that of Bangladesh," said population specialist Philippe Fargues of the American University in Cairo.

Saudi Arabia: $380 Billion GDP

Population change by 2040: +54%
Median age in 2010: 24.6
Median age in 2040: 33.8
Birth rate: 51 out of 223 
The quintessential job for a Saudi man used to be an executive position in state-sponsored company, with a big pay check and very little work. But there are only so many jobs the Sultan can give away. With the population growing at a third-world rate, the government is struggling to diversify the economy away from petroleum, according to the CIA World Factbook.
"In a country with a young demographic profile—those below 30 make up over 60 percent of the population—the need for change has not been as strong for quite some time, and yet the current situation forebodes a rare combination of both challenges from a long time past and a unique opportunity to confront them," said Hassan Hakimian, an economist at the Cass Business School.

Ukraine: $116 Billion GDP

Population change by 2040: -21%
Median age in 2010: 39.5
Median age in 2040: 46.6
Birth rate: 202 out of 223 
Low birth rate and high emigration rates are the story throughout eastern Europe. Ukraine stood out for its rate of population decline, which is the highest of all developing countries, according to the CIA World Factbook. Former President Viktor Yushchenko saw an even more dire picture when he warned Ukraine could lose half of its population by 2050, according to Ukraine news site ForUm.

South Korea: $800 Billion GDP

Population change by 2040: -2.5%
Median age in 2010: 37.9
Median age in 2040: 51.0 
Birth rate: 212 out of 223
South Korea is swiftly catching up to Japan in terms of old populations with dismal birth rates. As such it may be heading toward its own lost decades: stagnation, labor deficits, and burdensome pensions and health care. Meanwhile, North Korea is turning out babies at a quick rate, which has scary implications for the island balance of power.
"The challenge facing Korea is especially daunting, and quite simply no other society at a similar stage of development faces an age wave that is as massive as Korea's, or as fast-approaching," said Keisuke Nakashima, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

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